Product Plan 101

What makes a product plan?

I promise it's something tangible.

Step 01

Key Ingredients

A good product plan consists of 3 key ingredients:

Clear Problem Statement

Measurable Outcomes

Risk Mitigation

Step 02

What is Good?

In general, a good plan follows 3 principles:

Numbers Over Descriptions

Quantitative data aids objective decision-making.

Reasonable Assumptions

Provide estimates when reliable data is lacking to facilitate discussion.

Goldilocks Rule

Just enough detail. Too little = low confidence. Too much = distraction.

The Problem

A problem well put is half-solved.

Step 01

Ask Yourself

You'll need to answer these questions:

User

Who is the user?

Pain Points

What are their pain points?

Needs

Describe the problem as unmet user needs.

Impact

How big or meaningful is the problem?

Case Study

Problem

80% of license applications on XXX's system take >6 mths to resolve, against target of 3 mths.

Impact

Revenue loss of $X per year for these businesses. With N approvals/year, the overall impact is significant.

Validation

"Does your thing solve a real problem in the world and are people clamoring, needing it badly?" — Jeff Weinstein

Step 02

Clear Problem Statements

Defining who the user is:

  • Who's the user?
  • Focus on a few specific segments (e.g., business seeking license approvals) rather than large segments (e.g., all businesses in Singapore).
  • Don't confuse the customer and the user. The customer (MOX) pays for the product, the user (business owners) interacts with the product.

Step 03

What is the Pain Point?

E.g., approvals taking 6 months instead of 3 months.

What happens if we left this problem alone?

  • Unclear and outdated documentation were flagged out as areas of risk during the audit reviews.
  • Better: XX cases of non-compliance to prevailing policies cost us $XM each year because these users relied on guidelines in outdated policy documents strewn across our employee portal.

If you need a benchmark, compare with alternate solutions or adjacent industries

  • Approvals continue to take 6 mths, or more with X new policy
  • System B takes 4 mths per approval
  • F&B licenses take 3 mths per approval

Step 04

Clearly Describe Unmet User Needs

Based on data collected from users and speaking to them, state the user's characteristics, needs, and why they have that need.

  • Consider expressing it in the form of a problem statement.
  • Template: [Name of user persona] is a [type of user] who needs [type of user experience] because [benefits of user experience].
  • Example: Anne is a staff officer who writes AORs for overseas trips. She needs an efficient way to double check her submission against all applicable finance guidelines. She presently searches, downloads, and toggles among more than 5 separate finance policy documents for each AOR.

Step 05

What is the Size of the Problem?

Quantify the market and impact:

  • When calculating the total addressable market (maximum potential target audience), working up from a small unit (e.g., number of applications to assess) is often better than working down from a large unit (e.g., no. of ministries that need to assess applications).
  • A logical, back-of-the-envelope estimate with reasonable assumptions is often sufficient.

Examples

  • Revenue loss of $XXM per year for X no. of businesses
  • ~3 man months are spent by 15 officers monthly collating, cleaning, emailing, and drafting MS Word reports on service transactions, which are done manually on Excel, Outlook, Word.
  • Symptoms of poor service delivery is only identified and acted upon up 2 weeks later, because data and business insights are manually collated and generated.

Step 06

Finding it Hard?

You might have too many problems in one problem statement.

  • Break down large problem statements into its components.
  • When first starting out, it is better to focus on a narrow problem statement, affecting a narrow set of users. Once you have solved that problem, you can expand out to other related problem statements and/or other similar users.
  • For 'brownfield' projects (i.e., tech refresh), the problem statement is not that the system is approaching End-of-Life (EOL) or End-of-Service (EOS).
    • Rather, consider what problem the existing system was solving and think about how you can better solve that when rebuilding it.
    • Reaching EOL or EOS tells you the timeline, not the value.

Step 07

Common Mistakes

Avoid these pitfalls when crafting problem statements:

Too Aspirational

Being very aspirational can prevent us from diagnosing the actual problem.

❌ "Support SMEs to expand into SEA." (What is preventing this?)

Hidden Solution

Hardcoding a specific solution in the problem statement artificially narrows the range of solutions.

❌ Avoid premature optimization.

Measurable Outcomes & Targets

The right outcome metrics tell us if we are moving in the right direction.

Step 01

Why Metrics Matter

Metrics force trade-offs and decisions, focusing teams on building better products.

Case Study: Stripe Atlas

  • Problem: Only 15% of founders completed incorporation with zero support tickets.
  • Solution: Focused on this single metric - companies with no support tickets through the entire process.
  • Result: Over 18 months, took that number from 15% to 85%. Market share followed the same trajectory.
  • "I think you have to find a measure by which it speaks directly to what the customer wanted, and that if you accidentally leaked your dashboard to them, your customer would be ecstatic to learn that that's what you were measuring the whole time." — Jeff Weinstein, Stripe

Step 01

Attributes of the Right Outcome Metrics

Outcome metrics should be relevant, frequent, objective, and specific.

Relevant

Improvement or worsening of problem should show in metrics.

Example: "% of applications where time from first submission to communication of outcome is ≤ 3 months" is better than "% of successful applications".

Frequent

Changes in solution should quickly show in metrics.

Calculating metrics annually results in long lag time before we can tell whether our interventions are working.

Objective

Metrics should not be based on subjective impressions. Use objective data like timestamps.

Self-reported metrics tend to be less accurate and are best avoided.

Specific

Two persons reading the same metric must be able to calculate them independently.

Specific: "% of applications where time from first submission to communication of outcome is ≤ 3 months"

"What are we going to do to naturally, organically every day, orient a larger group of people in the right direction and see if our tactics are generating progress over time for a customer from their perspective? And metrics on the left and a series of tweets on the right is a pretty great combo."

Jeff Weinstein, Lenny's Podcast

And in my opinion, if the problem being solved is incorrect, metrics that seem alright will be wrong as well.

Step 02

Set Targets based on Cost Per Impact

Generally, when setting targets, it is useful to consider what the cost per impact of the product will be.

  • Formula: Cost per impact = Annual Total Cost / Target units of impact
  • If the cost per impact is unreasonably high, you should consider whether the targets can reasonably be raised.
  • If not, you should reconsider whether it is financially worthwhile to continue the project.
ItemCurrentNew
Annual platform cost (Cost)$100,000$200,000
Annual applications100,000100,000
% Applications resolved within 3 months10%30%
# Applications resolved within 3 months (Impact)10,00030,000
Cost per impact$10.00$6.67

Risks

Of course it'll come with some risks.

Step 01

Why Mitigate Risks?

Risk mitigation is important so we can be confident in delivering an effective product on time.

At each point throughout the life of your product, it is useful to think about the risks that have been mitigated and those which remain to be mitigated through future action.

Market Risk

Will it be used? Will it solve the problem?

Technical Risk

Can it be built within time and resource constraints?

Team Risk

Does the team have the know-how and commitment?

Step 02

Market Risk - Will This Work?

Determine the Theory of Change and validate your riskiest assumptions.

Determine the Theory of Change

  • How will your solution achieve the desired outcome?
  • It's too simplistic to think "If we do A, B will happen".
  • In the real world, there are typically several steps between A and B.
  • Map out your user journey and interactions and determine what needs to change at each step to lead to the desired outcome.
  • Example: Reduce time taken for 80% of applications from 6 months to 3 months by introducing: (1) Detailed form to collect more relevant information, (2) Better UI to present info and cut need for clarifications

Identify the Riskiest Assumptions

  • There is usually some underlying assumption behind each step.
  • Low-risk assumptions are ones over which we have a high degree of control or where past data has proven that we are unlikely to be wrong.
  • High-risk assumptions are ones that we have minimal control or will fundamentally change our direction if proven wrong.
StepAssumptionChangeRiskLevel
1Users fill in applicationBetter qualityFatigued applicants might provide less accurate infoMedium
2Users submit applicationsNo changeWe receive fewer submissionsLow
4Officers clarify detailsShorter durationOfficers might take same time or moreHigh
5Officers resolve appsNo changeMore info complicates decisionLow

Validate the Assumptions with a Proof-of-Concept (POC)

  • Focus on the higher risk assumptions and find ways to validate if they were true (i.e., proofs-of-concept).
  • Doing this early helps us find workarounds or pivot our solution before committing additional resources.

The way that now I approach a lot of consumer product development is if this is true, then what next needs to be true for this thing to work out? And these layers of conditional statements. And the more layers you have, the higher risk your product is, so you should try to condense it to about like four things that must be true for the thing to work.

Nikita Bier, Lenny's Podcast

Product Plan Template

These are good starting points.

Step 01

Variant 1 (Amazon)

Amazon's six-pager format:

  • Introduction - States the challenge or opportunity, and why it matters.
  • Goals - The vision, what hitting the mark looks like. Paint a picture of achievement both inspiring and realistic.
  • Tenets - Core values guiding your strategy.
  • State of the Business - Where things currently stand, e.g., hard numbers, market standing, or any other pertinent details.
  • Lessons Learnt - Assess previous efforts, identify effective strategies, learn from mistakes, and understand their causes.
  • Strategic Priorities - Write tactics to tackle identified challenges in pursuit of stated goals.
  • Appendix (optional) - Extra info that avoids detracting main flow of proposal.

Step 02

Variant 2

A simpler, experiment-focused format:

  • Customer problem
  • Observations
  • Hypothesis
  • Experiment
  • Success Metrics

Credits

  • Smart Nation Group's Product Plan Framework, Govind Ganesan
  • BCG's RISE Programme materials

Apptitude / Curated by Zixian Chen

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